The presence of the naval vessels close to the Libyan coast changed the earlier trends and patterns of sea trips from the country. Therefore, the forecasts largely depend on whether the naval assets remain there and keep patrolling the area or not. If they remain, then a constantly high number of arrivals should be expected not only in the summer, but also during the winter time, i.e. when migrants would normally not attempt crossing the rough seas. With the discontinuation of patrolling there, the trends of the previous years should resume.